And your question or thesis in this posting is....?

You may be posing less of a thought experiment than a daymare that
tempts me to have several happy beers and continue thinking of
exploding nukes purely, solely in the context of movies.

Although the mad, aggressive detonation of at least one nuke is
somewhere in our future, given the supply of poorly guarded or
loose and soon to be expanding fisionable material there is in the
world. Or, for that matter, the brazen, ingenious hijacking of a
Pakistani weapon outright.

I read Alas Babylon. And The Fate of the Earth. And Fail Safe.
And other titles. All compelling fiction and morality plays but
about as heartening as having a sleep-over in a dank morgue.

It's not clear from the trailer that the narrative of this new
movie, The Road, is sparked by nuclear war, but the practical
effects of the unspecified event(s) (sudden climate catastrophe, a
la Day After Tomorrow ?) are indistinguishable from H bombs:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0898367/

Watch the trailers. Very compelling. Perhaps, at the rate the
human race is going, every day this becomes slightly less fiction
than prophesy.

I too doubt the possibility of deliberate, full scale nuclear war.
Ignorant and selfish we are collectively, but I don't see our
current management problems rising to the level of mass suicide.
Especially as now some smarter heads of state seem to have
concluded that the best way short of military action to convince
Iran and N. Korea to cease nuke development is for US-USSR to
permanently remove half of all their arsenals, as Obama and Putin
may be discussing by year's end. If we decrease our stockpiles
they will have zero legit excuse to increase theirs. On the other
hand, that is a logical chess move requiring people of reason and
compassion to gain and hold power, which is far from assured, not
even in this country, given the low lucidity of shrill right-wing
media and the 2nd Amendment fanatics arming themselves for WW IV.

But the operative word in that first sentence is "current" -- from
now to 10 or 20 years out. After that...all bets are off.
Climate change however wherever it occurs will become the very mad
monster. If sea levels rise 2 feet and drought ravages
crop-growing regions and water supplies shrink and unchecked
disease rises to levels of the 1918 flu -- that's an apocalypse in
itself. The UN recently estimated that "less-than-severe" climate
change could create up to 200 million refugees. That's extreme
disruption on the way to anarchy and genocide that would dwarf
WWII.

We need to start getting off this planet. For it's own sake, but
also as a matter of survival elsewhere. Just in case.

I think I'll go to buy a six-pack now. Cheers!


Mark McKennon



On Tue Jun 16 15:27:08 CDT 2009, "Collin R. Skocik"
<collinskocik@...> wrote:

> Some years ago I became rather irrationally obsessive about the
> possibility of nuclear war. I had my fallout room picked out, my
> alternate bathroom, my canned goods and water, I'd worked out how
> much damage my town would suffer depending on megatonnage, etc.
> etc....I don't know how I fell into that morbid state -- oh, yes
> I do...I read Pat Frank's Alas Babylon...
>
> Well, anyway, supposing some Strangeloveish scenario were to
> trigger a full-scale nuclear war; I often hear it said that not
> only is it possible, but it's more likely today than it was
> during the Cold War. (Actually, I think a nuclear war is
> inevitable; as long as the weapons exist, someday someone will
> use them, but I think a global nuclear holocaust a la The Day
> After is unlikely.) But supposing some computer glitch or sudden
> international crisis or crazed general were to trigger a nuclear
> war which devastates a large percentage of the East and West --
> I've heard nuclear winter is out, we'd more have a "nuclear
> autumn," but I think that's a small consolation in light of the
> mass destruction, wildfires, lethal radioactive fallout, and the
> end of our prosperity and way of life... Given the cold, the
> plagues, the radiation, the complete loss of the technological
> infrastructure we've come to rely on for everything, the loss of
> medical care, waste disposal...well, you know the drill...would
> anyone survive in the long term? Would the human race face
> extinction?
>
> I personally don't think so, though all the humans might die in
> the affected lands. I think the southern hemisphere and the
> Third World would rise to power...but I wonder who, how long it
> would take, and whether a modicum of modernity would be restored
> to the world...the Internet, satellites, cars.
>
> Collin
>
>